Black Friday Sales Jump 16.4% As European Debt Burns

According to Reuters, "U.S. retailers racked up $52.4 billion in sales during the Black Friday weekend, a 16.4 percent jump from a year earlier." This is a strong showing from the retail sector.  This performance may boost the S&P 500 this week.  However, this move will likely be tempered by investor concern over European bond rates; with Italy's two-year yields above eight percent on Friday.  This weeks S&P 500 expected trading range is between 1,110 and 1,207 (see chart 3 below).  A move below 1110 at any time during the week triggers a "Tentative Buy" opportunity.  

S&P 500 Still Indicates Tentative Buy

Over the last three weeks the S&;P 500 has plodded along the 200 day SMA.  However, on Friday it closed at 1215.65  (a 3.81% decline for the week) which, if you recall, is below the target (1216.75) that I set as indication of a significant weekly market move (or buy opportunity).  Based on weakness in the intermediate signal (blue line in chart below) it still appears that the market will decline further, but long term it is still indicating that we are in a "Tentative Buy Period" (see Oracole Investment Strategy). The new target indicator for a significant buy opportunity will be a drop below 1168.25 (or a 3.90% drop on any given day).  The only thing that is worrisome to me is that the slope of the 200 day SMA has become negative. 

S&P 500 Signals Tentative Buy

Last week I stated that it appeared from the market senitiment signal in Chart 1 below that the market was set to decline over the next few weeks.  However, the long term sentiment signal line (green) continues to approach the first confirmation signal and the intermediate signal (blue) has reversed direction slightly and still remains above its confirmation line (pink).  Due to this shift in the intermediate signal it is difficult to say which direction the market is headed, but the market remains in a tentative buy period  and a decline below 1,216.75 (or a decline approaching 3.73% or greater on any day) this week should be considered a signifcant "Tentative Buy" opportunity (Oracole 401K Investment Strategy).  Also the "Super Signal" (Chart 2) is still indicating that it is safe to buy (see chart 2 below).

S&P 500 Set For Intermediate Decline

It appears from the market senitiment signal chart below that the market is set to decline.  The intermediate signal (blue signal line) has peaked and is declining.  This indicates that there should be some "Tentative Buy" (Oracole 401K Investment Strategy) opportunities over the next few weeks to come.  I see a decline below 1,206 (or a 3.75% decline) this week as a signifcant "Tentative Buy" opportunity. The slope of the long term signal line (green) is positive, but it has not yet fully confirmed.  However, the "Super Signal" is still indicating that it is safe to buy (see chart 2 below).

Chart 1: 11/04/2011 S&P500 Market Sentiment (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 2: 11/04/2011 S&P 500 "Super Signal" (Click To Enlarge)