Monday, May 14, 2012

S&P 500 1,340 Tested

According to CNBC's Fast Money article, "Technical Trouble: S&P Breached 1340", written by Lee Brodie on 3/14/2012, an important technical level was breached today at 1,340 and the next technical level to look for is 1,305.  The article states that if the S&P 500 goes to  1,257 it will be flat for the year, and it is expected to test this level sometime in the year (historically common).  Based on the intermediate signal in the "Sentiment Chart", displayed as a blue line in Chart 1 below, the market is likely to test the 1,305 support level short term (some time in the 2nd quarter).  However, where my analysis differs from the experts at Fast Money, for mutual fund investors the long term signal (green line Chart 1 below) indicates that it is not time to sell yet, and a break below 1,309 this week could be a significant buy opportunity (outside of 2 standard deviations of a 40 week average).  According to this weeks expected trading range, displayed in chart 2 below, it is expected that trading will be between 1,309 and 1,398 (+/- 3.32 %).  

Chart 1: 05/14/2012 S&P 500 Sentiment Chart 

Chart 2: 05/14/2012 Expected Weekly Trading Range


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