Up, Down, Up ....

For the last 5 weeks the S&P 500 has sea-sawed up and down, and after last weeks performance of 3.73% I wouldn't expect a repeat, but the intermediate signal in Chart 1 is indicating that the market is improving.

The close last week fell outside of the expected trading range (above 1,322).  However, the long term sentiment signal is likely to indicate the first tentative signal to sell within the next 2 weeks.  With the intermediate signal improving it may be the perfect time to begin incrementally transferring out of equities into bonds or secure assets.  If the intermediate signal maintains its trajectory.  I would time my transfers to begin after the intermediate signal crosses zero.

Chart 1: 06/10/2012 S&P 500 Sentiment

Chart 2: 06/10/2012 Expected Weekly Trading Range

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