According to Reuters, "U.S. retailers racked up $52.4 billion in sales during the Black Friday weekend, a 16.4 percent jump from a year earlier." This is a strong showing from the retail sector. This performance may boost the S&P 500 this week. However, this move will likely be tempered by investor concern over European bond rates; with Italy's two-year yields above eight percent on Friday. This weeks S&P 500 expected trading range is between 1,110 and 1,207 (see chart 3 below). A move below 1110 at any time during the week triggers a "Tentative Buy" opportunity.
The "Sentiment Chart" (chart 1 below) has confirmed a decline in intermediate sentiment (blue line) by dropping below the pink signal line. This suggests that the S&P 500 will continue to decline over the next few weeks (3 to 6 weeks). The long term sentiment signal line (green line) has also begun to level out and appears to be approaching an inflection point. A significant price drop this week (see chart 3) may force this inflection. However, until the long term sentiment line has confirmed this inflection; we are in a "Tentative Buy Period" (see Investment Strategy page). This is a period for small incremental rebalancing of ones portfolio from cash and bonds into equities. The "Super Signal" (see chart 2 below) has still not indicated danger yet although slowly trending towards zero. A red line has not yet appeared (see older posts for explanation).
The "Sentiment Chart" (chart 1 below) has confirmed a decline in intermediate sentiment (blue line) by dropping below the pink signal line. This suggests that the S&P 500 will continue to decline over the next few weeks (3 to 6 weeks). The long term sentiment signal line (green line) has also begun to level out and appears to be approaching an inflection point. A significant price drop this week (see chart 3) may force this inflection. However, until the long term sentiment line has confirmed this inflection; we are in a "Tentative Buy Period" (see Investment Strategy page). This is a period for small incremental rebalancing of ones portfolio from cash and bonds into equities. The "Super Signal" (see chart 2 below) has still not indicated danger yet although slowly trending towards zero. A red line has not yet appeared (see older posts for explanation).
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| 11/25/2011 S&P 500 Sentiment Chart (click to enlarge). |
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| 11/25/2011 S&P 500 Super Signal Chart (click to enlarge) |
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| 11/25/2011 S&P 500 Expected Weekly Trading Range |
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