Over the last three weeks the S&;P 500 has plodded along the 200 day SMA. However, on Friday it closed at 1215.65 (a 3.81% decline for the week) which, if you recall, is below the target (1216.75) that I set as indication of a significant weekly market move (or buy opportunity). Based on weakness in the intermediate signal (blue line in chart below) it still appears that the market will decline further, but long term it is still indicating that we are in a "Tentative Buy Period" (see Oracole Investment Strategy). The new target indicator for a significant buy opportunity will be a drop below 1168.25 (or a 3.90% drop on any given day). The only thing that is worrisome to me is that the slope of the 200 day SMA has become negative.
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| S&P 500 Sentiment as of close on 11/18/2011 (click on chart to enlarge) |
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Sunday, November 20, 2011
S&P 500 Still Indicates Tentative Buy
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